San Francisco Bay Area Population Growth Forecast to 2035

Remember my posting about California population? According to US Census Bureau, as of July 1st, 2008, California is the most populated state with 36 million people. Half of Californians reside in the Greater Los Angeles Area (5 counties which are Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside and Ventura), and 20% reside in San Francisco Bay Area (9 counties, which are Marin, Napa, Solano, Sonoma, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara).


That means around 7 million people are living in the Bay Area. Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) just released a projection, by 2035 over 9 million people will live in the Bay Area. That is two millions more than today!



Some of the issues that ABAG are trying to address are housing, jobs, transportation, energy costs and reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Complete forecast can be read here.

One classic question remains, where are we going to house these two million people? Among two scenarios presented by ABAG, under Focused Future scenario, the amount of greenfield development will be reduced. Instead, growth will be redistributed near area with high concentration of jobs and transit.

Should we keep building housing or should we let the natural selection apply (lack of affordable housing will force people to move out of the bay area)?

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Should You Invest in California or outside California? Part 1

I am often asked this question, “where should I invest in real estate, in California, or out-of-state?” There are pros and cons to either choice. In this article, I want to talk about population and its growth.

According to US Census Bureau, as of July 1st, 2008, the US population is estimated at around 304 million. California is the most populated state (36 million), followed by Texas (24 million), New York (19 million) and Florida (18 million).


Look at the pie chart above, you will notice that one of every eight Americans is Californian.

How about the growth? From April 1st, 2000 to July 1st, 2008, Texas grew by 3.4 million people, followed by California (2.8 million), Florida (2.3 million), Georgia (1.5 million), Arizona (1.3 million) and North Carolina (1.1 million).


Percentage wise, during the same period, California grew by 8.5%. Nevada has the highest percentage growth (30.1%), followed by Arizona (26.7) and Utah (22.5%).


Looking back as far as 1930, the graphics below will show you the population history for 11 different states in the US.



Source: US Census Bureau

Another interesting observation, during the period of 1988-2003, California is the number one destination for immigrants to come. According to US Department of Homeland Security, among all of the immigrants that enter US, 31% of them settle in California. That number is only from international immigration. Domestic migration into California also contributes to its growth.


Source: US Department of Homeland Security

If present trends continue, California's population will likely reach 40 million by 2010, and 45.5 million by 2020 (source: California Department of Finance). Long term perspective, based on population growth, the demand for housing in California is still strong.

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