Sunday, August 30, 2009

San Francisco Bay Area Population Growth Forecast to 2035

Remember my posting about California population? According to US Census Bureau, as of July 1st, 2008, California is the most populated state with 36 million people. Half of Californians reside in the Greater Los Angeles Area (5 counties which are Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside and Ventura), and 20% reside in San Francisco Bay Area (9 counties, which are Marin, Napa, Solano, Sonoma, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara).

California Population July 1, 2008
That means around 7 million people are living in the Bay Area. Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) just released a projection, by 2035 over 9 million people will live in the Bay Area. That is two millions more than today!

San Francisco Bay Area Population Projection to 2035
San Francisco Bay Area Growth Projection to 2035
Some of the issues that ABAG are trying to address are housing, jobs, transportation, energy costs and reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Complete forecast can be read here.

One classic question remains, where are we going to house these two million people? Among two scenarios presented by ABAG, under Focused Future scenario, the amount of greenfield development will be reduced. Instead, growth will be redistributed near area with high concentration of jobs and transit.

Should we keep building housing or should we let the natural selection apply (lack of affordable housing will force people to move out of the bay area)?

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